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Bitcoin Tests Bear‑Market Ceiling After Brief Break Above 50‑Week Moving Average

The move will show whether heavy ETF inflows plus short covering can push through dense long‑term‑holder supply and signal a real bull-market turn.

Overview

  • Bitcoin briefly traded above the 50‑week moving average and topped about $82,000 before pulling back to roughly $81,100, leaving the weekly close as the key confirmation point.
  • US spot‑Bitcoin ETFs added a large net intake that analysts put at about $730.8 million on Sept. 3, building on roughly $2.8 billion of ETF inflows linked to a mid‑August short squeeze.
  • Liquidation data from CoinGlass shows more than $500 million of crypto liquidations during the rally with about $415 million coming from Bitcoin shorts, which amplified the rapid price rise.
  • Glassnode identifies a dense long‑term‑holder supply band between $83,000 and $86,000 that must be meaningfully absorbed for the move to be durable, and Galaxy Research says a weekly close above the 50‑week line is required to confirm the bear market has ended.
  • Analysts outline two clear paths: a confirmed reclaim could open targets near $90,000 and the prior 2026 high near $98,000, while failure to hold reclaimed levels could push price back toward $71,800 and possibly $62,000–$65,000 and raise volatility for traders and long‑term holders.