Bitcoin Tests $88K as ETFs Turn Sellers and CryptoQuant Calls a Demand-Driven Bear Market

Overview

• CryptoQuant characterizes the market as a bear phase and flags downside references near $70,000 in the months ahead with a realized‑price anchor around $56,000 if demand fails to recover.
• BTC is consolidating around a key $88,000 pivot, with $85,000 highlighted as a critical support tied to the average U.S. spot ETF cost basis.
• U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, with combined holdings down roughly 24,000 BTC, signaling a reversal from last year’s accumulation.
• Liquidity and depth have weakened since the Oct. 10 leverage purge that wiped out about $19–20 billion, with exchange volumes falling and aggregated 2% market depth roughly 30% below 2025 highs.
• Derivatives and on‑chain signals remain defensive, including multi‑year low funding rates, price below the 365‑day moving average, and a negative Coinbase premium indicating U.S. sell pressure.