Overview

• U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs hauled in $429.9 million on Sept. 30, capping roughly $3.53 billion of net inflows for September led by BlackRock, Ark Invest and Fidelity.
• A weaker ADP report showing private payrolls down 32,000 and the U.S. government shutdown boosted expectations for an October rate cut to about 99%, a backdrop traders say favored risk assets.
• On-chain data show stablecoin netflows to exchanges have turned negative since late September, pointing to thinner spot liquidity that could leave the rally vulnerable without renewed inflows.
• Market breadth improved as ether, solana and dogecoin rose several percent on the day, and a wave of short liquidations helped extend upside once bitcoin reclaimed the $114,000 area.
• Technicians highlight roughly $117,500 as key resistance that has capped advances since summer, with a clear break seen opening a path toward $120,000 and failure implying more consolidation.