Overview

• Bitcoin has hovered between roughly $110,000 and $113,000 over the past two days, with brief runs above $113,000 followed by pullbacks and hundreds of millions in liquidations.
• Rate‑cut odds for the Sept. 17 Federal Reserve meeting have climbed into the 90% range, putting this week’s CPI and PPI releases in focus as potential catalysts for a breakout or a deeper dip.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain mixed, with about $383 million in net outflows recorded late last week and roughly $368 million in net inflows on Monday, a cooler pace than summer’s surge.
• Institutional accumulation continues as MicroStrategy disclosed a 1,955 BTC purchase worth about $217 million and Metaplanet lifted its treasury to 20,136 BTC, while South Africa’s Altvest outlined a $210 million raise to buy Bitcoin.
• Derivatives positioning skews defensive with elevated put demand and signs of new shorts, on‑chain data show supply shifting from large whales to mid‑sized and ETF custody wallets, and AI models project a neutral range with rising odds of a late‑September move.