Overview

• Bitcoin trades near $112,000–$113,000 after rebounding from sub-$109,000 and sits about 7%–10% below its recent record high above $124,000.
• On-chain cost bases show short-term holders under pressure, with resistance clustered near $113.6k–$115.6k and key support near $107k at the six‑month cost basis.
• Spot ETFs and corporates are absorbing roughly 3,600 BTC per day even as exchange inflows fall to multi‑year lows, while stablecoin deposits and BTC withdrawals point to accumulation on major venues.
• Derivatives positioning remains cautious with low open interest, funding near neutral and BTC puts priced over calls on Deribit, raising questions about the durability of any bounce.
• Traders are focused on Friday’s PCE inflation print, the Sept. 11 CPI and the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting, with many noting September’s historically weak seasonality versus typically stronger Q4 performance.