Overview
- Bitcoin remains range‑bound around $85,000–$91,000, with resistance clustered near $90,650–$90,840 and support near $86,915 as liquidation pockets around $86,000 and $91,000 flag near‑term volatility.
- Sentiment is strained with the Fear & Greed Index at 20, while capitulation gauges such as SOPR and short‑term holder MVRV below 1 and 35.66% of supply in loss point to a bear phase that could extend into early 2026.
- Leverage has reset after Q4’s ~$40 billion drop in open interest and a Dec. 26 $3,000 flash dip that wiped about $70 million in BTC longs, with liquidation heatmaps showing risk across $81,000–$97,000.
- Flows are mixed as US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $825.7 million in net outflows between Dec. 18–24, even as spot buying totaled roughly $3.72 billion over four weeks and long‑term holders turned net positive on Dec. 26 by 3,784 BTC; one analysis notes exchange withdrawal transactions have fallen to multi‑year lows.
- Short‑term technicians see scope for a relief move toward $93,500–$97,000 on a clear break above resistance, while a fractal model projects a possible cycle bottom around $41,500–$45,000 in October 2026.