Overview
- Sentiment sits in extreme fear as the Fear & Greed Index hit 20, with U.S. spot ETFs logging $825.7 million in net outflows between December 18 and 24.
- On-chain hints of accumulation emerged as Glassnode’s Hodler net position turned positive on December 26 with 3,783.8 BTC added, and OBV broke a recent downtrend.
- Short‑term technicals split: an ascending triangle flags resistance near $90,650 with a potential push toward $93.5k–$97k on a breakout, while a descending triangle around $85k and multi‑year‑low exchange withdrawals warn of rapid downside on a breakdown.
- Derivatives show a leverage reset, with Bitcoin futures open interest down about $40 billion in Q4 and December 26’s 2.22% drop triggering $70 million in long liquidations out of $189 million total.
- Outlooks for 2026 span from bearish calls near $65k to bullish targets of $150k–$250k, reflecting uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy, liquidity, and the return of institutional inflows.