Overview
- BTC continues to trade in a tight $86,000–$90,000 band after repeated rejections near $90,000, with technicians warning a loss of the point‑of‑control could open a move toward the ~$80,000 range low.
- At roughly $87,000–$88,000, Bitcoin needs about a 6.24% rebound to flip 2025’s annual candle green versus the ~$93,400 yearly open, or it risks a first post‑halving red close.
- On‑chain data show realized losses have fallen sharply from November’s capitulation peaks (roughly $2.4B weekly to about $0.5B), signaling seller exhaustion even as net realized P/L remains negative.
- Institutional flows present mixed signals, with Coinbase flagged as the largest recent seller and Galaxy Digital transferring about 447 BTC to Bybit and Bitstamp, plus another 200 BTC, raising short‑term supply concerns.
- Analysts split on what comes next: some see rising support and a 3‑day MACD cross pointing to $92K–$100K if defended, while 2026 forecasts range from consolidation or drawdowns to bullish calls clustered around $150K–$250K.