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Bitcoin Stabilizes Near $115,000 With Renewed ETF Inflows

Polymarket traders assign a 49% probability of a sub-$100,000 dip reflecting ongoing liquidity risk

Overview

  • Bitcoin edged back above $115,000 after a macro-driven selloff triggered over $1 billion in leveraged liquidations last week.
  • Bitwise reported $18.74 million in net ETF inflows today, marking a potential reversal of recent outflows.
  • Traders on Polymarket assign almost even odds of a drop below $100,000 before year-end, underscoring persistent tail risk.
  • On-chain data show more than 56 million whale transactions on Binance, with thin order books magnifying price swings.
  • Long-term holders maintain significant unrealized gains with a NUPL ratio above 0.5, underscoring foundational support.