Bitcoin Slips Below $90,000 as Markets Brace for BoJ Rate Decision

Overview

• Bitcoin traded near $89,600 on Sunday in thin liquidity, extending an 18‑day consolidation roughly between $85,000 and $95,000.
• Markets widely expect the Bank of Japan to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to about 0.75% on Dec. 19, raising the risk of a yen‑carry unwind that can drain liquidity from risk assets.
• Previous BoJ hikes in March and July 2024 and January 2025 coincided with bitcoin drawdowns of roughly 20%–31%, keeping $86,000 support and potential $76,000–$70,000 retests in focus if levels break.
• On‑chain cost‑basis metrics signal structural support in the low $80,000s, including the True Market Mean near $81,000, the U.S. spot ETF average around $83,800, and the 2024 cohort near $83,000.
• Pre‑event positioning points to caution, with rising exchange inflows, easing funding rates and put‑leaning options skews, even as some analysts see Fed liquidity and ETF buying as countervailing supports.