Overview
- Bitcoin trades around $89,000 after failing to reclaim the $90,000 level, with recent closes below the 50‑day EMA signaling weakened near‑term momentum.
- Prediction market Myriad now assigns roughly a 30% probability to a drop toward $69,000, up from about 12% a week earlier, reflecting a sharp rise in bearish sentiment.
- Technicians flag a developing bear flag below former range highs, with $80,000 cited as key support and some analysts warning a deeper corrective test near $70,000 if ~$88,000 gives way.
- On‑chain data show only about 71%–71.5% of supply is in profit, below the ~75% stability threshold, even as whales accumulate and long‑term holder activity remains muted.
- Derivatives positioning remains cautious with BTC‑denominated open interest stuck below prior peaks and roughly 240,000–265,000 BTC recently, while ETF flows have swung between outflows and brief inflows, leaving demand fragile as Trend Pulse holds in Bear Mode for 83 days.