Overview
- After a brief move above $94,000 on the Fed’s 25 bp cut, Bitcoin failed to hold gains and fell back toward the low $90,000s, with $92,000–$94,000 flagged by analysts as the pivotal near‑term range.
- Powell’s cautious guidance and the New York Fed’s temporary T‑bill purchases fueled sharp swings, reinforcing thin-liquidity conditions that have amplified intraday reversals.
- On‑chain data show accumulator addresses added roughly 75,000 BTC between Dec. 1–10 and Binance saw record withdrawals with weak deposits, pointing to tighter exchange supply.
- A widely watched realized‑loss reading near -18% suggests stress but not deep capitulation, countered by ongoing whale distribution estimated at about 170,500 BTC over the past year.
- Short‑term pressures include $77.3 million in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, while a House Financial Services Committee letter urged the SEC to allow crypto in 401(k)s, a potential longer‑term demand driver.