Overview

• Market-implied odds of a September rate cut eased to roughly 73%–74% from about 92% a week earlier, per CME FedWatch.
• Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she would not support reducing rates if the decision were required now, citing a lack of clear economic weakness.
• Bitcoin fell about 1.6% to roughly $112,300 and Ethereum dropped 2.6% to about $4,230, with broader tokens also lower, according to CoinGecko data.
• Traders positioned defensively before Powell’s speech, with profit-taking, a Coinbase-Binance spot discount signaling strong U.S. selling, and options pricing skewed bearish.
• Bitwise’s Juan Leon said Powell may strike a cautiously hawkish tone that could pressure high-beta assets, while some analysts report stacked limit orders awaiting a macro catalyst.