Overview
- The cryptocurrency fell to a six-month low near $94,700 on Friday and is holding in the mid-$90,000s after a roughly 22% retreat from early October highs.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $866.7 million in net outflows on Thursday, the largest daily withdrawal since early August, according to CoinGlass.
- Market depth has deteriorated to roughly $535 million from about $766 million in early October, increasing the market’s sensitivity to large orders, Kaiko data show.
- Options markets reflect mounting caution, with at-the-money implied volatility around 51% for one week versus 48% for six months and heavy demand clustered in $95,000 puts.
- Taker flows have been dominated by put buying near 38.8%, and dealer hedging of those positions via futures selling raises the risk of a self-reinforcing downturn, while a rare weekly supertrend sell signal has appeared but remains unconfirmed.