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Bitcoin Slide Pushes Strategy’s BTC Treasury Underwater as MSTR Hits Multi‑Year Lows

The drop into the low $70,000s has shrunk the stock’s premium to its Bitcoin to near mNAV 1, raising questions about the feasibility of further equity‑funded accumulation.

Overview

  • Strategy disclosed on Feb. 2 that it bought 855 BTC for $75.3 million at an average of $87,974, lifting total holdings to 713,502 BTC with a $76,052 average cost.
  • MSTR shares fell into the $121–$133 range this week, down roughly 70%–76% from their November 2024 peak and setting multi‑year lows as Bitcoin tested ~$72,000–$73,000.
  • Leveraged short products tied to MSTR surged, with GraniteShares’ MSDD hitting a record $114 and Defiance’s SMST reaching an 11‑month high near $113.
  • Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi cut his MSTR price target by 61% to $185 while retaining a Buy rating, as markets brace for Q4 2025 results due after the close on Feb. 5.
  • Analysts and traders are watching mNAV near ~1.08, with prediction market Myriad assigning a 36% chance Strategy sells BTC this year, though none of its coins are pledged as collateral.