Overview
- Bitcoin, which traded just above $72,000 Thursday, set up a near-term test between support at $70,000 and resistance around $78,000 to $79,000.
- Flows tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and continued coin withdrawals from exchanges suggested steady institutional buying that can help backstop prices.
- Short-term tools such as MACD and the SOPR gauge for long‑ versus short‑term holders turned higher, hinting at firmer momentum even as the price sits below major 100‑ and 200‑day averages.
- Macro analyst Benjamin Cowen flagged the 20‑week and 21‑week moving averages near $78,000 to $79,000 as likely resistance and warned the rebound may be a counter‑trend rally with a 70% to 75% chance of revisiting February lows.
- A break over the high‑$70,000s would strengthen model paths that point to room toward roughly $72,000 to $93,000 over the next 6 to 12 months, while losing $70,000 could reopen a drop toward $63,000 to $65,000.