Overview
- Bitcoin climbed to about $91,950 on Sunday after early‑December lows near $85,000, with trading tight ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 policy decision and fresh jobs data.
- Prediction and futures markets show elevated odds of a quarter‑point cut next week — roughly 92%–93% on Polymarket and 86% on CME FedWatch — which traders cite as the key near‑term catalyst.
- Market depth remains thin after October’s leverage wipeout, derivatives open interest fell through November, and a weekend slide triggered roughly $444 million in liquidations before OI stabilized near $30 billion.
- Spot ETF demand weakened as U.S. funds turned net sellers in November, and Glassnode reports about 7.1 million BTC at a loss on a seven‑day average, a stress pattern similar to early 2022.
- Analysts are split: Coinbase Institutional and K33 see scope for a December recovery on improving liquidity, while Peter Brandt warns a break below roughly $80,200 could expose downside toward around $58,800.