Overview
- Bitcoin recovered from last week’s lows near $80,000 to trade around $90,000, but repeated failures at the $88,000–$90,000 band keep the outlook tentative.
- Investors pulled nearly $3.6 billion from US spot Bitcoin ETFs in November, underscoring weaker structural demand and thinner liquidity.
- Implied volatility remained unusually subdued through the drawdown, a shift tied to institutional options hedging and a more mature market structure.
- Derivatives positioning still leans cautious, with put skew intact, funding rates flipping negative recently, and renewed interest in $100,000 calls on Deribit.
- Rising odds of a December Fed rate cut and moves in US equities are steering near‑term direction as participation thins around the Thanksgiving break.