Overview
- BTC recovered from lows near $80,600–$82,000 to trade around $86,000–$87,000 after a sharp multi‑week sell‑off from October’s ~$126,000 high.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $1.22 billion in weekly net outflows and $4.34 billion over four weeks, while on‑chain data showed roughly $2 billion in BTC moved to exchanges, reinforcing sell pressure.
- Derivatives data showed an extreme long/short imbalance (about 71,000 BTC longs vs ~27,900 BTC shorts) that fueled cascading liquidations, followed by the cycle’s steepest 30‑day open‑interest drop.
- Options positioning has turned defensively bearish, with a notable build‑up of puts in the $80,000–$85,000 range and deeper put skew across maturities.
- Analysts are split after BTC fell below the 730‑day SMA (~$81,250): some see a tactical bottom as Fed December rate‑cut odds climb back near 70%, while others warn of a possible retest into the high‑$70,000s or deeper if macro support fades.