Overview

• Bitcoin trades around $114,000 after a two‑day bounce, with immediate resistance near $114,750–$115,000 and next hurdles at roughly $116,500–$118,000; support sits around $110,000–$112,500.
• Traders are focused on a potential U.S. government shutdown and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, with outcomes likely to sway rate‑cut expectations and short‑term crypto risk appetite; the NFP release could be delayed if a shutdown occurs.
• Charts highlight a developing double‑bottom near $108,200–$108,650 with a neckline around $117,800, implying a measured move target near $127,000 if confirmed by a breakout.
• On‑chain and flow data point to accumulation and revived participation, including exchange outflows, higher volumes, and fresh institutional buying such as Strategy Inc.’s 196 BTC purchase at an average of $113,048.
• Outlooks diverge sharply, with some analysts projecting a Q4 push toward $150,000–$180,000, others warning of a potential ~20% drop toward $90,000–$94,000, and a CryptoQuant post flagging transaction spikes above 600,000 as a recurring bullish signal.