Overview

• BTC touched $113,000, its highest since Aug. 28, forming a first short‑term higher high since the mid‑August record near $124,000, as market dominance neared 59%.
• Roughly $3.28 billion in Deribit options expired with max pain around $112,000, a level the spot price gravitated toward ahead of expiry, and traders now look to the U.S. jobs report for the next catalyst.
• Seasonality studies highlight September weakness and a typical retest toward the 20‑week SMA, with some analysts, including Benjamin Cowen, expecting a fourth‑quarter recovery afterward.
• Fractal‑cycle watchers such as Joao Wedson caution that a cycle top could arrive in October 2025 before a deeper bear phase, with scenarios outlined for a potential drop toward $50,000 in 2026.
• Market structure analysis points to Asia initiating intraday moves and U.S. institutions determining follow‑through, with key levels clustered around $108,000–$115,000 as on‑chain and exchange metrics guide risk.