Overview
- Bitcoin climbed to about $91,950 on Sunday, recovering from early‑December lows near $85,000 and staying range‑bound between roughly $85,000 and $94,000.
- Prediction markets put the odds of a 25 bp cut this week near 92%, and traders view the Fed decision as the immediate catalyst for a break higher or a renewed slide.
- Derivatives remain a key driver with sizable open interest and recent liquidation waves, while market‑making depth is still reduced since October’s wipeout.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs that turned net sellers in November have shown several recent inflow days, pointing to tentative stabilization in institutional demand.
- On‑chain and flow signals show a reset in profitability and U.S. activity, with SOPR at its lowest since early 2024 and the Coinbase Premium rebounding after dipping negative.