Overview
- BTC bounced from an intraday low near $86,700 to trade back above $88,000 and the 100-hour SMA, with resistance seen at $88,500–$90,200 and supports at $87,500, $86,700 and $85,000.
- Supply in Profit has fallen to roughly 13.5 million BTC, leaving the 30‑day average about 1.75 million BTC below the 90‑day average, according to Axel Adler.
- The gap between the 30‑day and 90‑day Supply in Profit averages is narrowing by about 28,000 BTC per day as October peak readings roll off the longer window.
- Adler projects a possible bullish 30/90 SMA cross in late February to early March if conditions hold, noting a 1.3x supply elasticity to price and a critical downside risk level near $70,000.
- Separate analysis suggests long‑term holder distribution is easing after adjusting for a large Coinbase transfer, with a recent 30‑day LTH supply increase of about 10,700 BTC.