Overview

• U.S. producer inflation unexpectedly declined in August, with headline PPI down 0.1% month over month and core PPI also down 0.1%, while annual rates eased to 2.6% for headline and 2.8% for core.
• Futures pricing points to roughly an 88%–92% chance of a 25 basis‑point cut at the Sept. 17 FOMC, with the probability of a 50 basis‑point move rising to about 10%–12% and prediction markets assigning slightly higher odds.
• Bitcoin traded around $113,000–$114,000 after the data, as CoinDesk’s chart analysis confirmed an inverse head‑and‑shoulders breakout implying a target near $120,000 and Blockonomi highlighted a potential move toward $129,000 on a Fibonacci extension.
• Several analysts warn that rising‑wedge and double‑top formations leave room for a retrace toward roughly $100,000 if bullish momentum fades or macro data surprises to the upside.
• Spot bitcoin ETFs have taken in more than $1.1 billion over the past 10 days, while derivatives positioning appears cautious with a Futures Pressure Score near 18%, putting the focus on CPI and next week’s Fed decision for direction.