Overview

• Bitcoin trades near $109,000, about 12% below its August peak, after a September 25 bp Fed cut failed to sustain a rally.
• A double‑top around $111,000–$112,000 leaves immediate support near $106,500 and a chart target close to $100,780, with $112,000 as the level that would invalidate the bearish setup.
• Risk appetite has cooled as the Fear & Greed Index slips into Fear and weekend spot volumes fall roughly 33%, signaling fragile market depth.
• Year‑end projections have moderated, with panel estimates in the $120,000–$145,000 range and Citi’s baseline near $135,000, while higher calls from VanEck ($180,000) and Matrixport ($160,000) face growing skepticism.
• Strategy’s Michael Saylor urged continued accumulation even as the firm’s 639,835 BTC stake fell in value to about $70 billion, and Mike Novogratz argued that an exceptionally dovish new Fed chair could be the strongest bull catalyst toward $200,000.