Overview

• Congress failed to pass funding, triggering a partial shutdown at midnight with agency closures and near-term service disruptions.
• Bitcoin rose roughly 3% intraday, pushing through the $117,000–$118,000 band and hovering near $118,000 as gold set record highs and U.S. equity futures fell.
• The shutdown halts BLS releases for weekly jobless claims and the September payrolls report, heightening uncertainty for the Federal Reserve’s October meeting.
• Analysts are divided, with options risk‑reversal skew and heavier put demand signaling near-term downside while Swissblock highlights on‑chain metrics that suggest a Q4 base.
• Institutional ETF inflows, safe‑haven reallocation and weak ADP private payrolls have strengthened rate‑cut bets, putting $120,000 in focus as the next key level.