Overview
- Bitcoin briefly pushed above $90,000 on the first U.S. trading day of 2026 before slipping back into its recent $87,000–$90,000 band.
- Spot crypto ETFs recorded net outflows this week, including roughly $348 million from U.S. spot Bitcoin funds on Wednesday, underscoring uncertain institutional support.
- On‑chain gauges show continued exchange outflows and a turn higher in long‑term holder supply, even as short‑term holders have returned to net losses near double‑digit percentages.
- Derivatives signals point to caution, with about $1.85 billion in options heading into expiry and reported futures volumes down roughly 39% as open interest stays flat.
- Research desks outline a high‑probability, range‑bound baseline for 2026, with lower‑probability paths of a macro‑driven drop toward ~$50,000 or a flow‑led breakout toward $120,000–$170,000; prediction markets price low odds for $150,000 before 2027.