Overview
- Bitcoin has traded mostly between $87,000 and $90,000, with a brief push above $90,000 during the first U.S. session of 2026 as crypto stocks also rallied.
- CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno says indicators turned bearish in November and the drop below the one‑year moving average confirms a bear tilt, with a potential bottom zone estimated near $56,000–$60,000.
- On‑chain readings show the 30‑day net change in long‑term holder supply turning positive by roughly 10,700 BTC and continued exchange outflows, while short‑term holders have slipped back into net losses around 12%.
- Technicians highlight an Adam‑and‑Eve setup and a symmetrical triangle that could target the $94,000–$106,000 area, but they stress the need for decisive closes and rising volume to validate any breakout.
- CryptoQuant’s base case favors extended range trading driven by uneven spot ETF flows and derivatives positioning, as Bitcoin’s first post‑halving down year (about 6% in 2025) prompts a reassessment of the cycle playbook.