Overview
- Bitcoin briefly pushed above $90,000 during the first U.S. trading session of 2026 after weeks holding near the $87,000–$90,000 band, market data show.
- CryptoQuant outlines three paths for 2026, with a high-probability range trade roughly between $80,000 and $140,000, a medium-probability macro-driven drawdown, and a lower-probability breakout on stronger liquidity and steady ETF demand.
- On-chain indicators show long-term holder supply turning positive and continued exchange net outflows, reducing immediate sell-side supply even as demand remains cautious.
- Short-term holders have slipped back into losses and technical setups flagged by traders (including an Adam-and-Eve pattern and a symmetrical triangle) require a high-volume move above resistance levels in the mid-$90,000s to validate upside toward $100,000–$106,000.
- Downside risks remain on the table, with CryptoQuant’s Julio Moreno warning of a potential bear phase and realized-price tests near $56,000–$60,000, while prediction markets assign far lower odds to rapid moves toward $150,000 than to retests of $100,000.