Overview
- Bitcoin has stayed in a tight $85,000–$90,000 range for about two weeks, with the Bollinger Bands gap shrinking below $3,500 to the narrowest since July, according to TradingView data cited by CoinDesk.
- About $1.85 billion in BTC options were scheduled to expire at 8:00 a.m. UTC on Jan. 2 on Deribit, with a put‑to‑call ratio near 0.48 and a max‑pain level around $88,000 as derivatives volumes fell sharply.
- Polymarket odds imply only roughly a 21%–26% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2026, versus around 80% odds that it touches $100,000, contrasting with more bullish bank and analyst scenarios.
- Longer‑term signals remain mixed to weak, with BTC trading below the 50‑week simple moving average near $101,600 and CryptoQuant research pointing to a potential multi‑month drawdown with realized‑price support around $56,000–$60,000.
- Some traders highlight a potential “Adam and Eve” pattern that could open room toward $103,000–$105,000 on a decisive break above roughly $94,000, though stronger volume and steadier ETF inflows would be needed to sustain momentum.