Bitcoin Holds Near $88,000 as Analysts Map a Fragile, Bear-Tilted Market

Overview

• CryptoQuant reports demand growth fell below trend in early October, signaling a bear-market regime with intermediate support near $70,000–$73,000 and a realized-price reference around $56,000.
• Bitcoin trades about 30% below its October record above $126,000, as U.S. spot ETFs turned net sellers in Q4 with holdings down roughly 24,000 BTC.
• Liquidity has deteriorated since the Oct. 10 unwind, with centralized exchange volumes sliding and Kaiko measuring roughly a 30% drop in 2% market depth from 2025 highs.
• Options and futures positioning point to elevated short-term volatility, with about $23 billion set to expire on Dec. 26 and flows seen mechanically pinning spot in an estimated $81,000–$93,000 range.
• On-chain data show long-term holders increasing distribution and unrealized profits shrinking, while recent cross-market liquidations and neutral funding indicate muted risk appetite.