Overview
- Bitcoin traded between roughly $87,000 and $90,000 into a $1.85 billion options expiry at 8:00 a.m. UTC, with a 0.48 put‑to‑call ratio, max pain near $88,000, and futures volumes down 39% while open interest hovered around $55 billion.
- Price remains below key trend lines, including the one‑year moving average and the 50‑week simple moving average near $101,600, reinforcing late‑cycle or bearish readings flagged by several analysts.
- Volatility has compressed with support clustered around $86,000–$87,500 and resistance near $89,500–$94,000, as chart setups outline potential moves toward $100,000–$106,000 only if breakouts are confirmed by strong volume.
- Polymarket prices a roughly 21%–23% chance of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by end‑2026 and about an 80% chance of $100,000, underscoring caution relative to bullish targets from major analyst desks.
- Institutional buying persisted late last year with additions from Metaplanet and Tether, while traders monitor potential Fed leadership changes, rate‑cut prospects and U.S. crypto legislation for direction.