Overview
- Bitcoin is about 30% below its October all-time high near $126,000 and has chopped between roughly $85,000 and $92,000 into year-end.
- On-chain shifts hint at a potential rebound, with an OBV trendline break, hodler net buying returning on December 26, about $3.72 billion in four weeks of spot accumulation, and roughly 15% fewer BTC on exchanges in 2025.
- Countervailing signs persist as SOPR and MVRV-STH remain below 1, retail transfer volumes slip back toward $375–$400 million, and US spot ETFs saw approximately $825.7 million in net outflows between December 18 and 24.
- Technical and flows maps highlight resistance near $90,650–$90,840 and support at $86,915–$85,000, with liquidation clusters around $91,000 for shorts and near $86,000 for longs.
- Outlooks diverge widely, from Samson Mow’s decade-long bull-run view to fractal models projecting a possible $41,500–$45,000 cycle low in October 2026, keeping both relief-rally and deeper-retracement scenarios in play.