Overview
- Bitcoin remains range‑bound between roughly $85,000 and $90,600, with analysts flagging a breakout above $90,650 as a setup for a short‑term move toward $93,500–$97,000, while a loss of $85,000 could accelerate downside.
- A rapid drop to about $86,000 on December 26 produced contained liquidations, and futures open interest has fallen by roughly $40 billion in Q4, indicating deleveraging rather than broad panic.
- On‑chain signals turned mixed as OBV broke a recent downtrend and long‑term holders added about 3,784 BTC, yet a rising share of short‑term supply suggests rallies may face sell pressure from breakeven sellers.
- Derivatives heatmaps highlight near‑term liquidity around $91,000 for short liquidations and about $86,000 for long liquidations, with technicians split between rising‑channel support and a descending triangle near $85,000.
- Outlooks diverge sharply for 2026, with warnings of a bear phase lasting another two to three months and downside scenarios toward $65,000 contrasted with calls for a Q1 relief rally and institutional targets around $150,000 to $250,000.