Overview

• Bitcoin trades around $117,000 after an 8.5% monthly gain, with recent sessions clustered between $116,000 and $118,000.
• U.S. spot ETFs have logged $2.8 billion in net inflows since September 9, including about $163 million on September 18, as Fidelity purchased roughly 836.75 BTC worth $97.7 million.
• Futures trade at a premium to spot with the seven‑day basis above the 30‑day, while spot volumes and open interest rose following the Fed’s 25‑bp rate cut.
• Short‑term holder MVRV Z‑scores sit near zero and on‑chain data show sizable September withdrawals from exchanges, pointing to tighter available supply.
• Analyst Axel Adler Jr. assigns ~70% odds of new all‑time highs within two weeks, with $115,000–$120,000 the key range and targets at $125,000–$130,000 on a sustained break higher.