Overview

• BTC is consolidating around $115,000–$116,000, with analysts flagging $117,000–$118,000 as the near-term ceiling and the 14‑day VWAP near $114,500 as pivotal support.
• Derivatives positioning leans bearish — the Futures Pressure Index sits near 32.5 and taker ratios are below 1.0 — but spot flows show absorption with a positive ~447 BTC delta and continued exchange outflows.
• On‑chain activity has climbed to a 2025 peak, with the 14‑day transaction count SMA around 540,000 since July, a trend some analysts say supports the price base.
• BlackRock’s IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF has logged roughly $3.1 billion in net inflows over the last 10 trading days, including about $246 million on Friday, reinforcing institutional demand.
• Whale wallets have sold more than $4 billion of BTC in recent weeks, adding supply pressure as Kalshi markets price about a 69% chance of $125,000 by November 2025.