Overview

• Bitcoin is consolidating around $115,000–$116,000 after a post–Fed cut rally stalled below the $117,000–$118,000 resistance band, with several analysts eyeing a decisive close above roughly $118,600 for confirmation of renewed upside.
• Near‑term support sits in the $114,000–$115,000 area, with a widely watched VWAP level around $114,500; failure to hold risks a pullback toward $113,000–$110,000.
• The Federal Reserve’s 25‑basis‑point rate cut sparked last week’s push to about $118,000, keeping macro conditions supportive even as momentum cools.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to absorb supply, with reported cumulative holdings above 1.3 million BTC, while Bitcoin’s 14‑day transaction count SMA near 540,000 marks a 2025 peak in network activity.
• Market stress remains elevated as crypto liquidations topped $520 million in 24 hours and the Fear & Greed Index dipped to fear, while Ethereum shows strong institutional accumulation at record fund holdings near 6.7 million ETH.