Overview
- Bitcoin is consolidating around $104,000–$106,000 after failing to sustain a push above $107,000, with the 200-day moving average near $110,000 viewed as a key confirmation level for upside.
- Analysts highlight $106,400 as a cycle pivot where a decisive reclaim could target $114,000–$120,000, while rejection keeps risks pointed back toward $100,000 and the high‑$90,000s.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted just $1.15 million in net inflows Monday, extending a pattern of choppy, unsustained demand and leaving no multi-day creation streak to validate a stronger bid.
- Derivatives positioning remains cautious as puts price richer than calls, open interest sits below October peaks, and large put clusters near $100,000 influence dealer hedging that can cap rallies.
- On-chain and liquidity signals are split, with rising stablecoin reserves and lighter miner selling suggesting dry powder, but 10x Research warns a break of $100,000 could accelerate downside into a liquidity gap near $93,000.