Overview
- Bitcoin is consolidating around $104k–$106k under resistance near $107k–$108k, with analysts framing $106.4k as the near-term pivot that could unlock targets toward $114k–$120k if reclaimed.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a modest $1.15 million net inflow on Monday after recent withdrawals, but flows have not formed the multi-day creation streak many view as confirmation of durable demand.
- Derivatives markets remain cautious as front-end puts price richer than calls and elevated open interest encourages dealer hedging that can pin price near round strikes, with block interest noted in $80k puts and $110k calls.
- On-chain analysis from 10x Research shows about 5.9 million BTC transacted in the $100k–$126k range, placing coins with potentially vulnerable holders and heightening downside risk if $100k breaks, with an air pocket flagged near $93k.
- Institutional buying persists but selectively, with Strategy adding 487 BTC last week, while a falling stablecoin supply ratio near 13.1 suggests growing sidelined liquidity that could fund a move once confidence improves.