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Bitcoin Holds Below $90,000 as Market Weighs Fed-Cut Hopes Against On-Chain Strain

Rising odds of a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut confront capitulation signals that point to fragile support.

Overview

  • Bitcoin is consolidating in the high-$80,000s after failing to sustain a break above $90,000 ahead of the Dec. 9–10 FOMC meeting.
  • Coinbase Institutional and K33 Research say improving liquidity and high cut odds could open a December rebound window, though positioning remains cautious.
  • On-chain data show stress escalating, with roughly $1.7 billion in realized losses versus about $605 million in gains and SOPR near 1.35, levels Glassnode says echo early 2022.
  • The U.S. trading bias gauge flipped quickly, as the Coinbase Premium slid negative then rebounded to positive, and U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs notched 8 inflow days in the last 10.
  • Technical watchers flag key supports near $85,000–$80,000, with some warning of risk toward the upper $50,000s if those levels fail, while others expect stabilization if $87,000–$92,000 is reclaimed.