Overview

• BTC is trading near $110,000–$111,000 after a volatile week, with technicians flagging $113,000–$114,000 as the cluster to reclaim before any push toward $120,000.
• On‑chain metrics turned mixed-to-constructive, with the KMFG indicator back in an accumulation zone and STH‑SOPR rising above 1 for the first time in 20 days.
• URPD data highlights layered support around $108,250, $104,250, and $97,050, while a dense resistance pocket sits near $116,963 where many holders may look to exit.
• Corporate and institutional holdings hit a record 840,000 BTC this year, yet monthly treasury inflows have cooled sharply, with Strategy’s buying down 97% from late‑2024 peaks and August additions limited across peers.
• Old supply is rotating as 7,626 BTC aged 3–5 years moved onchain, ETFs continue to absorb coins, and weaker U.S. payrolls with higher stablecoin reserves are feeding expectations of easier policy and potential fresh inflows.