Overview
- CryptoQuant warned that a severe macro or geopolitical shock, following President Trump's recent remarks on Iran, could push Bitcoin toward $10,000 as dollar funding tightens and oil prices jump.
- Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone renewed a $10,000 scenario, framing it as a rare but possible outcome if the market reverts to pre‑2020 trading norms.
- The price has hovered in a months‑long range near $66,000 to $70,000 after a roughly 45% slide from the October 2025 peak near $126,000.
- Investor demand looks weak as US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows and many holders sit at a loss with an average entry near $83,400, while a negative Coinbase‑to‑Binance price gap signals US buyers have stepped back.
- Selling pressure has broadened as Mara, Riot and Empery disclosed disposals and on‑chain data show about 9 million coins at a loss along with rising realized losses for long‑term holders.