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Bitcoin Ends 2025 Down, Breaking the Post‑Halving Pattern

Analysts point to ETF‑led institutional flows, tighter liquidity, smaller halving impact.

Overview

  • Bitcoin finished 2025 with a loss of about 6%, the first negative year following a halving on record.
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 drew reported cumulative inflows of roughly $56–$87 billion, deepening institutional participation and tying price action more closely to equities.
  • Correlation with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq increased through 2025, making Bitcoin more sensitive to interest rates, liquidity trends, and equity‑market sentiment.
  • The 2024 halving reduced annual issuance from roughly 1.7% to about 0.85% with around 94% of coins already mined, diminishing the magnitude of any supply‑shock boost.
  • ETF optimism helped drive gains before the 2024 halving and a peak early in 2025, then prices corrected, while analysts remain split on whether the four‑year cycle is over or evolving.