Overview

• Bitcoin rose about 4.5% in September, a rare green finish, with the price near $114,000 early Oct. 1.
• In previous years when September closed positive (2015, 2016, 2023, 2024), fourth-quarter returns averaged above 53%, with October averaging 21.8%.
• The Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta turned positive on a 90-day basis for the first time since July 14, signaling renewed buy pressure.
• A persistent Coinbase premium through Q3 points to concentrated U.S. spot accumulation.
• Analysts outline a conditional path toward roughly $170,000 by year-end based on these signals, stressing the limited historical sample and dependence on continued inflows.