Overview
- Traders put the probability of a quarter‑point Federal Reserve rate cut this week around the mid‑80s to high‑80s percent range, with analysts flagging likely dissents and a divisive meeting.
- The 10‑year Treasury yield has risen to roughly 4.15% even with a cut expected, reinforcing concerns about a potential “hawkish cut” that could restrain risk‑asset upside.
- Bitcoin has rebounded from early‑December lows near $85,000 to the low $90,000s, tracking a tentative lift in global equities as markets position for the decision.
- Coinbase Institutional points to improving liquidity and expanding money supply as December tailwinds for crypto, while other market participants highlight thin order books and cautious market makers after October’s leverage wipeout.
- On‑chain metrics underscore fragility, with declining exchange reserves, a bearish Hash Ribbon indicating miner stress, and negative short‑term holder profitability suggesting vulnerability into the Fed announcement.