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Bitcoin Bulls Eye Liquidity Pivot as Fed Bank Reserves Slip Toward $2.93 Trillion

Author Adam Livingston argues shrinking reserves approach a danger threshold that could steer policymakers toward easing, setting a scarcity backdrop in crypto.

Overview

  • The Kobeissi Letter reported U.S. bank reserve balances at the Federal Reserve around $2.93 trillion, near the low end of recent ranges.
  • Livingston attributes the reserve slide to three forces: a Treasury cash rebuild at the Fed, the Fed’s quantitative tightening runoff, and growth in other Fed liabilities such as currency in circulation.
  • He contends similar liquidity inflection points in 2019, 2020, and 2023 coincided with notable bitcoin advances when policy turned more supportive.
  • CoinDesk highlights steady spot bitcoin ETF demand that reduces tradable supply, alongside on-chain data showing roughly 62,000 BTC moved out of long-term storage since mid-October.
  • Bitcoin recently held above about $114,000 with whale accumulation and mild short covering cited as drivers, while Ether outperformed with a roughly 6% gain on momentum.