Overview

• Analyst panels now guide to year-end ranges near $120,000 to $145,000, with Citi’s baseline at $135,000 and several firms retreating from earlier $180,000 to $200,000 projections.
• Charts flag a possible double top around $111,000 to $112,000, pointing to roughly $100,780 if $110,000 is not reclaimed, with $106,500 seen as near-term support.
• The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on September 18, followed by hawkish cues and strong U.S. data that coincided with a late-month pullback.
• Sentiment has flipped to risk-off as the Fear & Greed Index moves into “Fear” and weekend trading volumes slide about 33%, highlighting fragile market depth.
• Galaxy Digital’s Mike Novogratz said a replacement of Jerome Powell with an exceptionally dovish Fed chair would be the biggest bull catalyst that could reopen a path toward $200,000.