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Bills vs. Jaguars Wild Card Preview: Tight Line, Analytics Edge Bills

Models lean slightly to Buffalo with odds priced near a pick’em.

Overview

  • Buffalo (12-5) visits Jacksonville (13-4) on Sunday at EverBank Stadium in an AFC Wild Card matchup.
  • Josh Allen practiced in full this week after a recent foot issue, signaling likely availability for Buffalo.
  • Top sportsbooks list the spread and moneyline near even with a total around 51.5 points.
  • Dimers’ 10,000-simulation model gives the Bills about a 55% win probability, projects 25-24, and favors under 51.5.
  • Expert opinions diverge as talkSPORT backs the Bills moneyline while FantasyPros’ Andrew Erickson picks Jaguars +1.5, with injury notes including multiple Bills missing a walkthrough and Jaguars lineman Cole Van Lanen dealing with a knee concern.