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Bills vs. Falcons on Monday Night: Buffalo Favored as Atlanta’s Ground Game Targets Weak Run Defense

Betting markets make Buffalo a 4.5-point road favorite following a 23-20 setback to New England.

Overview

  • Kickoff is Monday at 7:15 p.m. ET on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with BetMGM listing Buffalo by 4.5 points.
  • Injuries: Bills LB Matt Milano is not expected to play, DT Ed Oliver is trending toward returning, and LT Dion Dawkins’ hand status bears monitoring; Falcons CB A.J. Terrell could return while WR Darnell Mooney is uncertain.
  • Matchup profile: Buffalo ranks No. 2 against the pass but 28th against the run, while Atlanta leads the NFL in total and pass defense and ranks sixth in rushing offense.
  • Recent form: Bijan Robinson produced 181 yards from scrimmage in his last outing, and Michael Penix Jr. posted career highs with 313 passing yards and a 76.9% completion rate before the bye.
  • Context and trends: Buffalo is 22-6 after regular-season losses since 2019 as Josh Allen looks to clean up three turnovers over his past two games, while Atlanta has allowed the league’s second-fewest sacks and rookie Xavier Watts leads rookies with two interceptions.