Overview
- ESPN airs the Monday Night Football matchup from Mercedes-Benz Stadium as 4-1 Buffalo visits 2-2 Atlanta at 7:15 p.m. ET.
- Buffalo ruled out TE Dalton Kincaid and WR Curtis Samuel, placed S Damar Hamlin and DT T.J. Sanders on IR, and will be without LB Matt Milano, while DT Ed Oliver returns; Atlanta gets CB A.J. Terrell back, with WR Darnell Mooney and CB Clark Phillips III out.
- Sportsbooks list the Bills by roughly 3.5–4.5 points with a total near 49.5–50, and betting splits reported by BetRivers show heavy money on Buffalo’s moneyline and on the Over.
- Data models lean Buffalo: Dimers gives the Bills about a 60% win chance but a strong probability Atlanta covers, and SportsLine’s simulation model has identified one side of the spread as a high-confidence play.
- Matchup focus centers on Josh Allen leading a top-tier Buffalo offense against Atlanta’s league-best yardage defense and on Bijan Robinson testing a Bills run defense allowing 145.6 rushing yards per game as Buffalo tries to preserve its AFC East lead.